For those people, I think it's really important to be allowing them to do activities that really maintain them on a pathway to employment. So a law graduate who missed out on a role at a prestigious firm would then try smaller law firms, or might give up and work as a paralegal, or in a hospitality job, or they might stay in a casual job while continuing to search But exactly as you're saying, in exactly Okie Dokie. So we see two really interesting patterns. So staying with your parents longer was much more likely in high‑income families. at least this initial wave of impact in being concentrated on young people, some of the negative impact of that is going to be cushioned, or limited by them living with parents who are able to support them. Applications for our 2021 Graduate program have closed. It’s really were being compared to those other workers who already had good wages. It is a market with weak labour demand and competition for jobs seems to be driving things now. This in turn has affected their career progression. Australia's Productivity Growth Slump: Signs of Crisis, Adjustment or Both? to get into work. Rules of Origin: can the noodle bowl of trade agreements be untangled? Work, income, technology and all that . While the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) affected Australia less than other countries, its after effects combined with the slowing of the mining boom led to a decade of relatively weak labour demand from 2008. And those people are going to be competing for fewer jobs. I mean, I think, the situation we are in, the costs of downturn so concentrated and so focused on particular people, that to me there's definitely a positive benefit cost in terms of trying to offset these really dire consequences They have the regulated minimum, and they're affectively not being scoped to adjust That We know that it's an investment — having internship programs is an investment for firms. We use something called an occupational score from ANU. Well, I guess the answer is we are. I guess at various stages this has been the subject of a huge amount of research. What Role for Policies to Supplement an Emissions Trading Scheme? But then there's a lot of unemployed people looking for work and a lot of people finishing their studies both under 25 and in that And so I think to me young people, they could complain about the fact they're going to have to pay off this debt in the future. There's no time for this unfortunately, but one thing that I've been worrying about is whether there will be fewer internships and fewer graduate opportunities as we work from home. Yeah, so I think that's a really important point Catherine. What would you emphasize? So Jeff, what is scarring? the same way, as those industries haven't completely bounced back to where they were before the downturn started, young people's employment hasn't completely bounced back to where it was before. Yeah, one interesting thing that we found in our work was that, if anything, this group of young people are moving up the ladder slower than in other periods and so it's not just that they're starting lower, it's that we're not seeing that same movement up the ladder. groups. of University students had increased by a third. This in turn has affected their career progression. This paper investigates labour market scarring that might have occurred over the period 2008 to 2018 — specifically whether young people entering the labour market during and following the GFC had a harder transition into employment than those entering earlier, and whether that experience could have longer term impacts on the labour market outcomes for this cohort. By offering employers some payment or subsidy for hiring young people, it increases the incentive to hire young people relative to other workers. And if they started in a less attractive occupation, it was even harder than before 2008 to climb the occupation ladder. just undo that in an instant. Because they're the ones who are trying to make their way into the labour market or that they're in an above average share of that group. But what we'd like to do is move on to thinking about the implications of those papers for the current covid crisis and what it means for young people. But, exactly as you say Catherine as well, that ability to provide support varies between families, and we know that it's not just the young. And, I think the decisions to continue JobKeeper and the decision to maintain a high level of JobSeeker — partly for the reason that they underpin the wellbeing So the other reason for scarring is that young people who are entering the labour market during more difficult times get pushed down the job ladder and it takes time for them to work their way up the job ladder. The Growth of Non-Traditional Employment: Are Jobs Becoming More Precarious? They discuss how difficult it is for many young people to climb the jobs ladder and the implications of that and of the weak labour market that prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic started. We also know that the job losses With regard to scarring, I guess I like to explain it by saying, it's what you usually understand by the word that if you cut your finger it sometimes bleeds a bit and then it heals and like a month later you wouldn't know that anything had happened to your finger. That's the period that the two papers now in return for sort of a more spread out and kind of hopefully evenly distributed sort of burden in the future. the bottom 30% paid of occupations. So simply stated — if you are entering the labour market at a time when there's more competition, then that makes it more difficult for you to get a job at that Regions that narrowed productivity gaps tended to benefit from economically vibrant tradable sectors and integration with well-functioning cities. Productivity Growth in Australia: Are We Enjoying a Miracle? Today they discuss both the Productivity Commission's work and Jeff's research into labour market outcomes for young people over the past decade. Also, while some young people might choose to pursue further study, and return to the job market when conditions are more favourable, this paper suggests that, if labour markets continue to be weak, additional education can lead to a mismatch between existing job opportunities and aspirations. So I guess the two main ideas there are extra skills and training. Because, for example, we know that young people's employment always decreases more in downturns and increases more in upturns. Workers aged 20-34 experienced nearly zero growth in real wage rates from 2008 to 2018, and workers aged 15-24 experienced a large decline in full-time work and an increase in part-time work. Lots of people, their career trajectory is to move up Yeah, you mentioned the work that I've done with my colleague Michael Coelli at University of Melbourne so we looked, I guess, in a couple of ways at something only slightly more specific. This research distinguishes the employment dynamics of New Zealand’s large urban areas from those of smaller ones and shows how the transition paths out of manufacturing and into professional services sectors have varied among urban areas. Although downturns are often short-lived, their effects can be long-lasting for some groups and individuals. difference in outcome between those who already have a job, which on average is the sort of the older group, so the over 35s mostly already have a job and then those looking for a job so that includes those in the 15 to 24 category, but also a fair number of people in the 25 to 34 category who have finished First of all, we define young people in our study is aged 15 to 24 and we focused on looking at employment outcomes, which as you mentioned, that fits into an understanding of what's happened to labour income and income of young people but more specific than the sort of task that PC’s undertaken. of individuals who would otherwise be being more adversely affected — but partly for the macro stimulus they provide, were good decisions. So, speaking of worrying and discouraging, let's turn now to the current COVID crisis. So as you know, the JobKeeper policy excluded particular groups: casual employees had been in their job for less than a year, temporary migrants. But sometimes if you have a bigger cut on your finger, it bleeds, then it gets fixed up. Are we going to expect those young workers to pick up the tab, as the job ladder even in what we consider good or normal times. arguments about sort of optimal stickiness don't apply to the hiring wages that we see, sort of a lot more adjustment in the hiring wages and so, that's an issue sort of again when it comes to thinking about young people that when you have adverse labour market conditions, they're going to find it harder So friends of mine have described that it's more challenging to train graduates in their office now that everyone is working from home. But there is a longer‑term bad macroeconomic outlook. Understanding this regional dimension of economic performance can help explain New Zealand’s aggregate productivity performance and how this performance could be improved. And how we try to do that is by separating out sort of pre‑existing trends in employment important to get their advice on the types of programs that they think are going to be useful to allow them best to put themselves in a position to obtain jobs when the labour market picks up. Right. She has also held visiting positions at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University and the Stern School of Business. In this episode, we're fortunate to have two guests. Now Roger Wilkins from the Melbourne Institute did some work on the characteristics of workers in these hard hit industries, and he has one interesting point which is that one small comfort is that the majority of these under 25 is at least still living with their parents, and so that provides It's also the case that they tend to have an above average share of younger people. The data used pre-dates the COVID-19 recession, but the paper’s findings are of heightened salience in our present circumstances. for the job they want. Because with many jobs moving to home, a lot of the opportunities to sort of train graduates and COVID being substantially removed in a lot of states in Australia was that economic activity picked up again. And I mean the other point to make about the sticky wages is that of course, and again, this is a point that your report, really, you know gets to, is that there's the wages of workers who are already in the firms, and then there are the wages of the workers who are being hired. Opportunity to apply for 2022 will open in 2021. today you are more likely than someone who wasn't unemployed today to be unemployed in the future. up. You know labour demand and labour supply that following the GFC, we ended a period of slower growth in aggregate employment. And because young people, as we've just been talking about, because young people were most in those industries, they have benefited most from the reopening and relaxation of restrictions. I think that probably needs to be expanded a bit to encompass other categories of young workers — the types of training and skills that it might be useful for them to do. The Productivity Commission looked at the types of jobs that young people found after graduating from university or vocational education and training, from 2001 to 2018. That's right Catherine, there has been from May to June — just to give some background from March to May, we saw about a 10.5% decrease in in hours worked in Australia and about a 6.7% decrease in employment.
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